German elections are usually dull affairs – but it’s different this time | World News

Germans are gearing up for a general election next weekend.

The country boasts the largest population in Europe, with 84 million people, and the largest economy with a GDP of $4.5 trillion, but its elections are typically uneventful affairs.

Historically, Germany has seen a consensus between the center-right and center-left parties, often forming grand coalitions after elections. The proportional representation voting system usually leads to minimal shifts in the political landscape, with lengthy negotiations required to form a government with a majority in the Bundestag.

However, the upcoming election is set to be different. Similar to France and the UK, the political landscape is being disrupted by the emergence of a far-right challenger party gaining significant support.

In France, Marine Le Pen‘s National Rally emerged as the largest party in last year’s Assembly elections, while Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is neck-and-neck with the major parties in current opinion polls.

The rise of AfD

Prior to the German election, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling in second place at around 22%, trailing the CDU/CSU conservatives at 30%.

The current red-green-yellow “traffic light” government’s partners, including the SPD Social Democrats and the Greens, are lagging behind in the polls. Challenges exist for smaller parties like the Liberal FDP, Linke, and BSW Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance to secure parliamentary seats.

Like other European countries, economic issues, immigration, the Ukraine war, and relations with the Trump administration are central in the German campaign. Elon Musk has also influenced German politics, similar to his impact in Britain.

Significant changes are evident as these issues were not priorities during Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s tenure before her retirement four years ago after 16 years in power.

Issues such as immigration have escalated since Merkel’s decision in 2015 to accommodate over a million migrants, mainly from Syria. Recent deadly attacks involving migrants as suspects in Munich, the Magdeburg Christmas market, and a stabbing in Aschafftenburg have heightened tensions.

The rise of AfD is a sensitive issue in Germany due to the country’s Nazi history. Despite its growing popularity, two-thirds of Germans view it as a threat to democracy, with 40% supporting the party’s closure.

While the leadership distances itself from extremist views, some supporters have displayed concerning symbols like swastikas. Campaign imagery and gestures by AfD supporters have drawn comparisons to fascist salutes, echoing Musk’s controversial appearance at Donald Trump’s rally early this year.

Farage maintaining distance

Far-right parties in Europe like France’s National Rally and Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia have distanced themselves from AfD, emphasizing a “clean break” and excluding them from their European Parliament caucus.

Similarly, Reform UK’s Nigel Farage has refrained from close ties with AfD. Despite this, AfD has garnered support from influential figures internationally, with Hungary’s Viktor Orban expressing admiration and hosting Alice Weidel, describing her party as Germany’s future.

Read more:
All you need to know about Germany’s elections
Does Germany need to be ready for war?
Musk urges far-right supporters to move beyond ‘past guilt’

Billionaire Musk, a prominent figure in President Trump’s circle, recently endorsed AfD at a major rally, urging supporters to focus less on guilt from the past and claiming that only AfD can save Germany.

Mainstream German parties have historically maintained a “firewall” to prevent far-right parties from influencing national policies. The main TV debates during the campaign have focused on the CDU and SPD chancellor candidates, with a potential coalition between the two parties still a possibility.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz, likely the next chancellor, breached the firewall by relying on AfD votes to pass anti-immigrant measures, drawing criticism from Merkel and impacting his party’s lead in the polls.

AfD likely won’t win this time

While the AfD isn’t projected to win the upcoming elections, it anticipates a breakthrough in government in the next general election in four years. Disrupting established assumptions, AfD’s increasing voter support could lead to unexpected outcomes in the political landscape.

If AfD