Sir Keir Starmer is facing pressure to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP quickly or risk further military cuts this year – especially as considerations are being made about deploying troops to Ukraine, as reported by Sky News.
Sources from the defence sector mentioned that such an increase, amounting to approximately an additional £5bn annually, is still insufficient to completely rebuild and modernize the armed forces. They emphasized that a minimum increase to at least 3% of the national income would be necessary.
However, the sources indicated that a swift increase in investment to the government’s promised target of 2.5% of GDP, up from the current 2.3%, should prevent significant reductions in capabilities – coinciding with Donald Trump’s urging for European militaries to strengthen.
“The reality is that more funding is needed now, or else prepare for more cuts,” stated a military insider who preferred to remain anonymous.
A second source from the defence sector added, “We understand that the government is in a challenging financial position. However, reaching 2.5% sooner rather than later would greatly benefit their relationship with the new US administration and the UK’s leadership role within NATO.”
The prime minister has committed to setting a course towards investing 2.5% of GDP on defence, but has not specified when this commitment will be announced or by which date the target will be achieved.
Defence sources believe that the Treasury is inclined to extend the timeline to the end of this parliament, a delay that could lead to the armed forces diminishing in strength.
“It’s simply not a serious approach,” expressed a third defence source with frustration.
The UK’s stance on defence spending gained attention last week following criticism from the new Trump administration towards European allies for relying too heavily on the US for defense in Europe and to support Ukraine.
As a nuclear power, Britain highlights itself as one of the strongest European military forces within the NATO alliance and emphasizes a special relationship with the US.
Sir Keir Starmer has said he is ‘ready and willing’ to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal. Pic: PA
Nevertheless, Sir Keir has maintained his target of 2.5% even as Mr Trump calls for allies to increase defence spending to 5% and take on a greater responsibility for security in Europe.
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, suggests that the goal for all 32 allies should be “north of 3%”.
The reality of Europe’s defense vulnerability has been exposed by Mr Trump’s tactics in resolving the war in Ukraine, where he sidelined the UK, European nations, and Kyiv.
US representatives are scheduled to meet with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Monday while France’s president urgently convenes a meeting of European leaders, including Sir Keir, in Paris.
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However, given the weakened state of the UK armed forces, the prime minister’s contemplation of sending British soldiers to Ukraine to assist in securing peace as part of a ceasefire deal raised concerns within defence circles.
One insider questioned how Mr. Starmer could propose such a demanding deployment without addressing the gaps in weapons and manpower in the army.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that any international security force comprising British and other foreign troops would need to be around 110,000 in strength.
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The UK would face challenges in sustaining a deployment of several thousand soldiers for an extended period, requiring trade-offs with other commitments, such as a battlegroup of roughly 900 military personnel stationed in Estonia for a NATO mission to deter Russian aggression.
With a focus on defence matters, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, along with other chiefs, met with Sir Keir on Friday to discuss military capabilities.
This meeting was highly unusual and indicates the prime minister’s interest in understanding the perspectives of top military officials.
The meeting coincided with an external team of experts, led by Lord Robertson, a former Labour defense secretary and NATO secretary general, finalizing a comprehensive review of defense that the government plans to publish this spring.
The reviewers were tasked with detailing how to modernize the army, Royal Navy, and Royal Air Force to counter future threats. However, their ability to deliver has been limited from the outset by Downing Street’s stipulation to achieve this within the defense spending target of 2.5% of GDP.
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A government spokesperson dismissed speculations about the prime minister considering raising defense spending above 2.5%. They stated, “The Strategic Defence Review is comprehensive, ensuring a thorough evaluation of the threats and required capabilities in the 21st century. As consistently mentioned, the review will be released in the spring.
“To address evolving threats, our budget increased defense spending by £2.9bn for the next year, and we remain committed to reaching 2.5% of GDP for defense.”