HomeScienceAn earthquake prediction went viral. Is it giving people false hope?

An earthquake prediction went viral. Is it giving people false hope?

Ana Faguy

BBC News, Washington DC

Christal Hayes

BBC News, Los Angeles

Max Matza

BBC News, Seattle


Getty Images Aerial view of San Francisco's Outdoor Public Warning System. In the background is a waterway with a large red bridge standing in the waterGetty Images

Brent Dmitruk calls himself an earthquake predictor.

In mid-October, he told his tens of thousands of social media followers that an earthquake would soon hit at the westernmost point of California, south of the small coastal city of Eureka.

Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 struck the site in northern California – putting millions under a tsunami warning and growing Mr Dmitruk’s following online as they turned to him to forecast the next one.

“So to people who dismiss what I do, how can you argue it’s just a coincidence. It requires serious skill to figure out where earthquakes will go,” he said on New Year’s Eve.

But there’s one problem: earthquakes can’t be predicted, scientists who study them say.

It’s exactly that unpredictability that makes them so unsettling. Millions of people living on the west coast of North America fear that “the big one” could strike at any moment, altering landscapes and countless lives.


Getty Images A highway has been turned into rubble after an earthquake, with an overpass split in half and two cars abandoned in the rubbleGetty Images

The Northridge earthquake, in Los Angeles, which killed 57 and injured thousands, was the deadliest earthquake in the US in recent memory