Amid rising tensions between India and Pakistan, Vice President JD Vance remarked to Fox News on Thursday that it was “essentially not our concern.” He suggested the United States could advise both nations to de-escalate, but emphasized this conflict was not America’s to resolve.
However, within just 24 hours, both Mr. Vance and Marco Rubio, now in his new dual role as national security adviser and secretary of state, were drawn into the intricate details of the situation. Historically, since Bill Clinton’s presidency, American leaders have been compelled to address major disputes between these longstanding adversaries, primarily due to fears of potential nuclear escalation.
The urgency for Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio arose from reports indicating that the Indian and Pakistani Air Forces had engaged in significant dogfights, alongside the deployment of 300 to 400 drones by Pakistan into Indian airspace to test its defenses. The most alarming development occurred late Friday, with explosions reported at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad.
This base serves as a critical military installation and a key transport hub for Pakistan’s armed forces, hosting air refueling operations crucial for maintaining its fighter jets. Moreover, it is located close to the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, the entity responsible for securing the nation’s nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to consist of around 170 warheads scattered throughout the country.
Intense clashes erupted between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir that claimed 26 lives, predominantly those of Hindu tourists. On Saturday morning, President Trump announced that both countries had agreed to a cease-fire.
A former American official with extensive knowledge of Pakistan’s nuclear strategy remarked that Pakistan’s greatest concern lies in the potential decapitation of its nuclear command authority. The missile strike on Nur Khan may have been perceived as a warning sign that India could target this authority.
It remains ambiguous whether U.S. intelligence indicated a rapid escalation, possibly nuclear, was imminent. Publicly, the most notable nuclear signaling came from Pakistan, with local media reports revealing that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened a meeting of the National Command Authority, responsible for nuclear decision-making.
Formed in 2000, this body is officially chaired by the prime minister and consists of high-ranking civilian ministers and military leaders. However, the army chief, Gen. Syed Asim Munir, is the real driving force behind the group.
Nonetheless, Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, refuted claims that the group had met. While speaking on Pakistani television prior to the cease-fire announcement, he recognized the existence of nuclear options but advised, “We should consider it a very distant possibility; it shouldn’t even be a topic of discussion.”
Discussions were unfolding at the Pentagon, and by Friday morning, it was evident that the White House had decided mere statements and calls to officials in Islamabad and Delhi would not suffice. Efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also proved ineffective.
A source familiar with the developments, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated that following Mr. Vance’s initial comment on the conflict not being America’s issue, serious apprehensions surfaced within the administration regarding the conflict’s potential for uncontrolled escalation.
With the frequency of strikes increasing, India’s focus shifted from targeting “known terror camps” associated with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the militant group responsible for the April attack, to striking Pakistani military installations.
The Trump administration also grew concerned that de-escalatory messages were failing to reach the top officials in both nations.
Consequently, U.S. officials determined that Mr. Vance, who had recently returned from a trip to India with his wife, Usha, an Indian immigrant’s daughter, should directly contact Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He conveyed that U.S. assessments indicated a high risk of significant escalation that could lead to full-scale war.
According to the American perspective, Mr. Vance urged Mr. Modi to explore alternatives to ongoing strikes, proposing a potential off-ramp that U.S. officials believed would be acceptable to the Pakistanis. Although Mr. Modi listened attentively, he refrained from making any commitments regarding these suggestions.
Meanwhile, Mr. Rubio, as stated by the State Department, held a conversation with General Munir, facilitated by his new national security adviser position. In the past two and a half decades, the White House has often acted, albeit discreetly, as a direct channel to Pakistan’s formidable military establishment.
Mr. Rubio also reached out to Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, and India’s nationalistic external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, whom he had met on January 22 in Washington.
Initially, it remains unclear how convincing he was.
The State Department opted not to hold a press briefing on Saturday regarding the content of these discussions, instead providing minimal descriptions that did not reveal the dynamics between Mr. Rubio and the South Asian leaders. However, the continuous communication from Friday evening to early Saturday seemed to establish a groundwork for the cease-fire.
A senior Pakistani intelligence figure, who could not disclose details publicly, praised American involvement over the past 48 hours, particularly Mr. Rubio’s role, for finalizing the cease-fire agreement. Nevertheless, reports on Saturday evening indicated that cross-border firings were still ongoing.
Prime Minister Sharif emphasized the U.S. president’s role, stating, “We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role in peace in the region,” and highlighted Pakistan’s gratitude towards the United States for facilitating this outcome for regional peace and stability.
In contrast, India did not acknowledge any American involvement.
It remains uncertain whether the cease-fire will endure, or if the prior damage might provoke additional retaliation. Reports from Pakistan suggest they downed five Indian aircraft, though India has not commented on its losses.
According to senior Pakistani intelligence, India appears to be attempting to provoke Islamabad into exceeding a defensive reaction. They assert that India aims to compel Pakistan to deploy its F-16 fighter jets in a retaliatory strike, hoping to intercept one. The jets were originally sold by the United States, as Pakistan maintains its status as a “major non-NATO ally,” a designation granted by President George W. Bush shortly after the September 11 attacks.
The senior Pakistani intelligence officer remarked that American intervention was crucial in preventing both nations from drifting toward war.
“The last initiative came from the president,” the official stated.