Correspondent on climate and science
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Scientists predict a potential surge in endangered shark, ray, and native oyster populations as these species adapt their habitats in response to increasing ocean temperatures.
However, some species, including a clam known for being the longest-living animal on Earth, may face challenges in adapting.
Research conducted by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science has for the first time detailed how 19 endangered marine species might respond to climate change in UK waters.
Many species could migrate to the North Sea, anticipated to become a hotspot for biodiversity in the coming decades; however, the disruptions caused by climate change may also yield adverse effects on marine ecosystems.
In May, an intense heatwave raised UK sea temperatures by up to 4 degrees above average.
“As an island nation, our reliance on the sea for food and employment is significant. Any changes in our waters have substantial impacts,” stated Bryony Townhill, a marine scientist at Cefas, in a BBC News interview.
The findings will assist the government in ensuring that Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) effectively safeguard species amid habitat changes.
Oceans globally are warming, absorbing nearly 90% of the heat produced by burning fossil fuels.
UK waters rank among the global hotspots for these climate change effects, witnessing rapid temperature increases over the last five decades.
Local fishing communities and beachgoers have already observed differences, including an uptick in jellyfish and the capture of Mediterranean octopuses in fishing catches.
For this analysis, scientists examined projections of sea temperature, salinity, and sediment levels leading up to 2060.
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Researchers compared the shifting ocean conditions to the preferred habitats of 19 currently vulnerable species in the UK.
The native oysters, basking sharks, spurdog sharks (which can reach lengths of 1.6 meters), and thornback rays are expected to thrive.
Mobile species are likely to adapt better than static ones, which may struggle with the changes.
The sea pen, a small reef-building creature, could lose about 40% of its suitable habitat by century’s end.
The ocean quahog, a clam capable of living over 500 years, is predicted to face significant challenges.
Declines in these species could disrupt ecosystems and food chains.
The scientists were taken aback by some discoveries.
“I didn’t anticipate that native oysters would fare well. They have been in decline for a century, yet climate models suggest they may actually thrive,” remarked Prof Pinnegar.
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Despite potential new habitats, Prof Pinnegar stresses the importance of protecting these vulnerable species from threats like overfishing, disease, and pollution.
“We’re not guaranteeing an increase in population; proper management and reduced pressures are essential for these species to thrive,” he explains.
The migration of these 19 marine species is also likely to influence coastal communities in the North Sea, potentially leading to larger fish populations, according to Dr. Townhill.
These findings appear in the journal Marine Biology.
A different study by the UK Met Office, published in the journal Weather, indicates a rapidly growing likelihood of extreme air temperatures in the UK.
The probability of reaching temperatures above 40C has increased more than 20-fold since the 1960s, and this trend is expected to continue.
Scientists predict a 50% chance of experiencing a 40C day again within the next 12 years.
For the first time on record, parts of the UK exceeded 40C in July 2022, during a heatwave that severely disrupted transport and health systems.
The World Weather Attribution group previously concluded that such temperatures would be “nearly impossible” without anthropogenic climate change.
Additional reporting by Mark Poynting
