The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After defeating the Houston Texans, the Chiefs advance to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive year. They are now just two wins away from achieving a three-peat, which would be a remarkable accomplishment in the Super Bowl era. The Buffalo Bills stand in their way, having defeated the Baltimore Ravens and now have the opportunity to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders pulled off an upset victory over the Detroit Lions and will face the Philadelphia Eagles in the upcoming weekend after the Eagles defeated the Los Angeles Rams.
Jeff Howe analyzes each conference championship game matchup before The Athletic‘s NFL Projection Model, developed by Austin Mock, reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The Chiefs and Bills will clash in the AFC Championship Game for the second time in four years after both teams secured victories in the playoffs.
The Bills sealed their spot with a thrilling 27-25 win against the Baltimore Ravens, led by quarterback Josh Allen’s impressive performance. The Chiefs, on the other hand, had a somewhat shaky start in the playoffs but managed to defeat the Texans 23-14, showcasing their strong defense and special teams.
The Chiefs are aiming to make history by becoming the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the charge. Despite a less explosive season for Mahomes, he has been efficient and has not committed turnovers in their recent games.
The matchup against the Bills, who excel at forcing turnovers, will be a key focus for the Chiefs. The battle between Mahomes and Allen will be one to watch, as both quarterbacks have had impressive seasons.
The Chiefs have a 30.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, while the Bills’ chances stand at 25.9%.
Chances to win the Super Bowl
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The Eagles and Commanders will face off in the NFC Championship Game, with both teams looking to secure a spot in the Super Bowl. The rivalry between these teams has been intense, with close matchups in the regular season.
The Eagles have been relying on their defense to force turnovers, while the Commanders’ offense, led by quarterback Daniels, has been impressive during the playoffs. The Commanders are determined to reach their first Super Bowl in 33 years.
The Eagles have a 33.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, while the Commanders’ chances are at 9.8%.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)