The wholesale price of eggs has decreased significantly since the start of March following months of increase, but it may take a few weeks for consumers to notice the drop.
Wholesale egg prices, the amount retailers pay for eggs, have dropped to a national average of just over $4 for a dozen large white eggs, down from a peak of over $8 at the end of February, according to recent data from the Agriculture Department.
However, due to eggs’ typical four-week shelf life, it may not be until the end of March that retail prices begin to decrease, as explained by Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate professor of economics at University of Central Arkansas. Some retailers may also wait until their current inventory is sold out before lowering prices.
Economists suggest that the decrease in wholesale prices, which are still higher than long-term averages, could be attributed to factors such as the bird flu being controlled, decreased consumer demand, increased supply, and decisions on producer pricing. The Agriculture Department reported no significant avian flu outbreaks in March so far, but economists warn that any new outbreaks could drive prices back up, as the virus has led to the culling of millions of hens since late last year.
In February, retail egg prices rose 10.4 percent from the previous month, continuing a months-long upward trend, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released last week.
Economists point out that price reductions may not be uniform across the country. Areas with multiple competing grocery stores could see quicker decreases in egg prices, while regions dominated by a single chain may experience prolonged high prices. Retail prices may also vary based on grocery chains’ strategies, with some choosing to keep prices lower to attract customers.
“They can pass on the wholesale price savings to us completely, partially, or not at all,” said David Anderson, an economics and business professor at Centre College in Danville, Ky. He predicts that high demand for eggs leading up to Easter could keep prices elevated until then.
President Trump, who emphasized reducing grocery prices during his campaign, mentioned the decline in wholesale prices in a recent speech at the Justice Department. Meanwhile, concerns have been raised about potential price increases for various products, including grocery essentials, due to his broad tariffs.
Egg prices, along with other groceries, caused anxiety during the Biden administration and became a significant concern for voters ahead of the 2024 election. A bird flu outbreak in 2022, coupled with rising costs related to the pandemic, drove wholesale egg prices to nearly $5 per dozen at their peak.
Egg producers attribute the decrease in supplies to the spread of avian flu. A trade association, United Egg Producers, stated that the industry lost over 40 million egg-laying hens in 2024 and 31 million in the first two months of this year due to the accelerated virus.
According to Mr. Anderson, bird flu has had a significant impact on supply. However, he suggests that the egg industry might see the epidemic as an opportunity to justify unnecessary price hikes.
“They are facing a crisis, but they may also consider using it as an excuse to maintain artificially high prices,” he explained.
The Justice Department is currently investigating potential antitrust issues related to major egg producers sharing pricing and supply information that contributes to price spikes. Some lawmakers and advocacy groups had previously called for federal regulators to examine the industry’s pricing practices.