A Soviet rocket fragment, roughly the size of a car, is projected to crash back to Earth in the next few days after spending 53 years in orbit.
“It’s a half-ton object descending from the sky at speeds of a couple of hundred miles per hour. It will certainly cause significant damage if it strikes something,” an astronomer told Sky News.
Originally, Cosmos 482 was meant to land on Venus following its launch from the USSR’s spaceport in present-day Kazakhstan in 1972.
However, the rocket’s upper stage, which was responsible for propelling it out of orbit, malfunctioned.
“The upper stage didn’t operate correctly, leaving just the probe in orbit around the Earth,” explained Smithsonian astronomer Jonathan McDowell.
While some parts of the rocket re-entered Earth’s atmosphere in the 1980s, one segment remained in orbit, believed to be debris from the spacecraft.
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“Years later, I analyzed the data and realized, ‘This debris […] remained in orbit much longer than other materials and seems denser. It’s not acting like typical debris,” said Mr. McDowell.
“I concluded that it was the Venus entry capsule from Cosmos 482, equipped with a heat shield capable of withstanding the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere.”
Currently, this heat-shielded capsule is on a trajectory towards Earth, with astronomer Marco Langbroek predicting a collision around May 10.
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“It’s a half-ton piece, approximately three feet wide,” remarked Mr. McDowell.
“As it enters the atmosphere at such high velocity, the kinetic energy transforms into heat, creating a fireball.”
By the time it impacts Earth, Mr. McDowell estimates that Cosmos 482 will be “traveling at only a couple of hundred miles per hour.”
“Yet, it’s still a half-ton object falling to Earth at that speed. If it hits, it could certainly cause injury,” he added.
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While scientists cannot pinpoint the exact landing spot, they estimate it will be somewhere between 51 degrees north and 51 degrees south.
“Penguins are likely safe,” remarked Mr. McDowell. “But if you reside anywhere from Chile to Scotland, you might be at risk.”
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However, as much of the Earth’s surface is water and with the lander being approximately the size of a car, the likelihood of it causing harm to individuals is minimal.
For Mr. McDowell, the situation surrounding Cosmos 482 underscores a wider issue.
“Space is becoming increasingly congested, and our reliance on satellites is growing every day,” he noted.
“I believe the moment is approaching when we must take more aggressive actions to address the problem of space debris.”